S&P Global Ratings has revised the Democratic Republic of Congo’s sovereign credit outlook from “stable” to “positive” — the first upgrade in nearly five years — signaling growing investor confidence ahead of the country’s upcoming debut Eurobond issuance.
In a statement released last week, S&P affirmed Congo’s long-term ‘B-’ and short-term ‘B’ sovereign credit ratings in both local and foreign currencies, while highlighting improved fiscal and economic fundamentals. The last time the credit rating agency assigned a positive outlook to the mineral-rich nation was in July 2021.
According to S&P, the positive shift reflects expectations that the DRC will continue to strengthen tax administration and fiscal performance, supported by favorable terms of trade, increased export volumes, and adherence to external policy frameworks — including the country’s IMF-backed Extended Credit Facility program.
The announcement comes just days after Kinshasa revealed plans to raise $750 million in April via its inaugural Eurobond offering. The funds are earmarked for critical infrastructure projects in road construction, logistics, and power generation, marking a significant milestone as the country formally enters the global debt markets.
Finance Minister Doudou Likunde welcomed the upgrade, describing it as a “vote of confidence” and an acknowledgment of the government’s efforts to enhance macroeconomic stability.
IMF-Backed Reforms Strengthen Outlook
S&P’s positive outlook builds on the International Monetary Fund’s recent assessment of the DRC’s reform program. Fiscal reforms aligned with IMF conditions are projected to broaden the revenue base, aiming to sustain government revenues at 14-15% of GDP — a marked improvement from the decade-long average of approximately 11%.
Notably, these reforms seek to reduce the public finances’ heavy reliance on the mining sector, which currently contributes over 40% of state revenue.
The agency also pointed to Congo’s robust economic growth driven largely by investments in copper mining. Real GDP has surged more than 40% since 2020, with exports now constituting nearly half of the nation’s GDP, doubling levels recorded just a few years ago.
Looking ahead, S&P anticipates further improvement in external balances as major mining operations like Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula project and China’s CMOC-run Tenke Fungurume mine ramp up production.
Security Challenges Continue to Weigh
Despite the encouraging outlook, S&P cautioned that persistent security risks, particularly in eastern Congo, remain a significant barrier to fiscal stability and investment inflows.
“The security situation in the DRC remains unstable, presenting major challenges to fiscal health and deterring investment,” the rating agency said.
In late 2025, the DRC and Rwanda signed the US-mediated Washington Accords, aimed at fostering peace, regional economic integration, and mining cooperation. A parallel peace initiative led by Qatar has also raised hopes for unlocking up to $21 billion in investment.
However, ongoing conflicts involving the M23 rebel group continue to threaten progress. Defense and exceptional security expenditures now represent approximately 3.4% of GDP annually, diverting resources away from development priorities and slowing reforms.
Market Experts Weigh In
Analysts see the S&P upgrade as a positive sign of improved economic fundamentals, but also as a reminder of the structural and security risks that Congo must navigate as it enters international capital markets.
The coming months will be closely watched by investors eager to see how these challenges impact the success of the country’s first Eurobond and its broader financial trajectory.
Reporting by Noko David
